The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global economic performance to remain resilient.

This is according to its latest World Economic Outlook report released yesterday. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the IMF projects global growth at 3.1% for 2026, a slight dip from its forecast in January.

Before the Iran War broke out at the end of February 2026, the IMF had anticipated global growth to be about 3.3% for the year, but this outlook was revised after the war began. While the conflict has caused some disruptions, particularly in energy markets, it has not triggered a major downturn in global economic performance.

In advanced economies, growth projections remain largely unchanged from the initial estimate of 1.8% the IMF forecast in January. The United States’s GDP growth estimate has been marginally revised lower to 2.3% for 2026, down from the previous 2.4%. The Euro area is expected to see a 1.1% GDP growth, down from 1.3%, largely due to its reliance on energy imports. The United Kingdom faces the steepest downgrade among advanced economies, with growth projected to slow to 0.8% in 2026, down from 1.3%, again due to its vulnerability to rising energy prices.

Emerging market economies have been revised down to 3.9% from 4.2%, and emerging Asian economies to 4.9% from 5.0%. India’s positive trajectory continues, with its growth forecast revised upwards to 6.5% from 6.4%. Meanwhile, China's growth projection has been slightly revised lower to 4.4% from 4.5%.

However, some regions, such as energy-exporting economies in the Middle East, are bearing the brunt of the conflict's effects. The Middle East and Central Asia have seen the most significant downward revisions. The region's growth forecast has been cut to 1.9%, down from the 3.9% previously expected.

Sub-Saharan Africa's growth forecast has also been adjusted downwards. The IMF now projects the region to grow at 4.3%, down from 4.6%. South Africa’s growth projection has also been revised lower, to 1.0%, down from 1.4%, while Nigerian GDP growth is also expected to be lower, at 4.1% from 4.4%.